The Expected Cost Of Donald Trump's Golden Dome Contract Will Make You Pause

In January 2025, President Donald Trump announced his plans to initiate an ambitious new defense system, "The Golden Dome," using an executive order directive called "Iron Dome for America." The planned cost of the 10-year project will come with a $151 billion price tag. Republicans proposed a $25 billion down payment on the project in May 2025 (via CSIS), and a deadline of October 10 for contractor proposals. Democrats have expressed concern over the project regarding everything from the bidding process to the accuracy of the proposed budget, which President Trump himself initially quoted higher at around $175 billion (via Independent). President Trump also proposed that Canada could seek protection under this Golden Dome if they kick in 61 billion USD — or agree to join the U.S. as its 51st state.

Inspired by Israel's Iron Dome, the Scalable Homeland Innovative Enterprise Layered Defense (SHIELD) may sound like something torn out of the script of a Marvel movie — the idea resembles Tony Stark's concept of a suit of armor around the world from "Avengers: Age of Ultron" — but the real life strategy being pursued by the Trump administration makes the salary Robert Downey Jr is making for his comeback Marvel role look like peanuts. The impetus for the Golden Dome project comes from an increased perceived threat from U.S. rivals like China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, who are increasing arsenals of hypersonic and long range ballistic missiles that could potentially reach American shores.    

The estimates from President Donald Trump and his Administration bay be much lower than the actual cost of designing a Golden Dome of defense. A May 2025 estimate of SHIELD, released by the Congressional Budget Office, found that even with the lower cost of missile defense over a 20 year period, space-based interception systems could actually cost as much as $542 billion. According to the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, the system will employ satellites and AI technology that can identify and track enemy missiles from the moment they're launched. Once detected, they'll hopefully neutralize the threat with high powered laser systems or kinetic interceptors — the latter of which can deflect missiles or enemy drones — from land, air, or sea. 

However, there's a possibility that enemies will just build and improve upon their arsenals, even while the Golden Dome is being built. As technology improves, there's no guarantee that a missile defense system built for current warfare won't be made obsolete, or far less effective, sometime in the near future. Finally, nobody actually knows if unproven technologies like space lasers will actually work to stop incoming missiles.

Even with all the unknowns, it should come as no surprise that military contractors are lining up to take on this job, demonstrating how war fuels profits for some of the world's biggest arms dealers. Before Trump and Elon Musk's public breakup on X, SpaceX was a suspected shoe-in for the contract until Democrats launched an investigation into the bidding process. However, a number of publicly traded companies like Palantir Technologies (PLTR) and Lockheed Martin (LMT.N) will likely throw their names in the hat, showing how wars can impact the stock market.