The Promise Experts Say Washington Should Break To Save Social Security

More than 74 million Americans received Social Security benefits in November 2025, per the Social Security Administration (SSA). These payments rely on the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund and the Disability Insurance (DI) trust fund. However, for decades experts have speculated that these Social Security trust funds would eventually struggle to distribute benefits, with predictions in 1983 stating that funds would be exhausted by 2057. However, this cliff is now set to occur much sooner than that. As of the end of fiscal year 2024, OASI and DI trust fund reserves had enough capital for 21.1 months, a significant drop from the 30.8 months that the trusts had in 2020. Current predictions for insolvency place it at late 2032.

To prevent Social Security insolvency, big changes are needed. Most notably, experts like the Bloomberg editorial board believe that Washington, i.e. Congress, needs to break a promise to the American people by implementing major, if unpopular, Social Security reforms — possibly even by reconsidering the full retirement age. Reforming Social Security means changing how the program is funded and even the way benefits are distributed. This is something Congress, whose members also pay Social Security taxes, is reluctant to do due to the lack of popularity for potential reforms. In the SSA's 2024 financial report, reform possibilities included ideas like increasing payroll taxes, slowing benefit growth, finding other revenue sources, and investing the remaining OASI and DI trust funds' reserves into private securities. Ultimately, while fixing the Social Security Reserve problem might sound simple on the surface, it's not necessarily welcome.

As of 2026, financing for Social Security mainly comes from a 12.4% payroll tax split evenly between employees and employers up to the taxable maximum of $176,100. A likely reform option would be a payroll tax increase that would leave either employers, employees, or both paying more in Social Security taxes. This is a hard reality that many are likely to face, and soon. Another potential reform centers on eliminating cost-of-living adjustments (COLA) for Social Security benefits. Understanding how COLA increases are calculated can help make sense of this growth slowing reform. Capping or reducing the COLA rate could prevent the eventual reduction in benefits when trust funds run dry, but it also leaves beneficiaries out to dry with inflation. 

If nothing is done to reform Social Security by late 2032, beneficiaries can expect a cut of up to 24% off their benefits amount, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Whether the U.S. government will find other sources to help fund Social Security, or decide to invest the reserves in private securities in an attempt to boost the trust funds to solvency, is unclear as of early 2026. However, Congress might need to contend with broken promises if it hopes to prevent the Social Security crisis on the horizon.