Stimulus Checks? What We Know So Far About Tariff Dividends

President Trump recently fanned the flames of stimulus check hopefuls with talks of a new $2,000 tariff check — part of the revenue made from his widespread tariffs on foreign goods. Even though the idea has been developing since July, Trump announced in a social media post last week that everyone, except high-income earners, would be getting these $2,000 tariff dividends. When Trump first announced these checks, many important details were still missing such as income thresholds, timelines, and even the exact form these dividends might take. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent explained at the time that he had yet to talk to President Trump in order to work out the details.

A week later, only some of those details have become clearer. First, these potential checks would not arrive in 2025. In a conversation with reporters on Air Force One, Trump explained that people would have to wait until 2026 for these checks, per Forbes. However, the likelihood of these checks actually ever being distributed to consumers is not guaranteed, especially with the Supreme Court still reviewing the revenue raised by Trump's tariffs. Plus, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has stressed that the administration can't send out checks without approved Congressional legislation. However, so far there's no bill in sight — which could mean these checks end up being as real as DOGE's early 2025 stimulus check promises — but Leavitt did tell the press that the administration is exploring legal options to make it a done deal.

While consumers might be excited about the idea of a dividend, the validity of the tariffs in which those dividends would come from, is still under review. The issue comes from President Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose his tariffs on foreign goods. While the act gives the president power to "regulate... importation" during emergencies, the Supreme Court has questioned just how far those powers really go. While the case is still in court, there is the possibility of these tariffs being ruled out altogether. If that happens, any plan for tariff dividends goes with it, since the government would have to issue refunds for tariffs already collected. 

Another consideration is the math involved with a tariff dividend plan. So far, the administration has not announced who would be considered a 'high-income earner' under their guidelines but Bessent has described those eligible as working families. If the administration imposes an income cap of $100,000, the cost could be substantial — about $300 billion, according to Tax Foundation's Vice President of Federal Tax Policy, Erica York. Still, revenue from tariffs for 2025 is estimated to be around that same amount, meaning it could be possible. Tariff checks aside, Bessent explained that there will still be some economic relief in 2026 due to new tax breaks implemented under Trump's signature One Big Beautiful Bill Act.